Title:

Run of River Hydropower in New England: Using River Flow as a Predictor for Generation

Hydropower is an important resource for New England, as it is a low-emissions energy resource that is not intermittent like wind or solar. Run-of-river hydropower relies more on the natural flow of water, and is therefore more susceptible to seasonal variations. With the hydrology of New England changing to an overall warmer and wetter climate, what does this mean for run-of-river hydropower? In this study, a simple statistical model was developed using river flow (discharge) as a predictor for energy generation on a monthly scale for seventeen run-of-river sites. While the model performance varied at the monthly scale, it captured seasonal means in generation reasonable well. Moving forward, this model will be calibrated to an expanded subset and applied to an ensemble of future hydrological scenarios to explore changes in average seasonal generation capability.

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