Title:

The effect of temperature on primary productivity trends in the global ocean

This study explores both the quantitative and qualitative data analysis of Earth system model and satellite output focusing specifically on the MODIS-Aqua and SeaWiFS satellites, as well as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) as a part of the National Science Foundation’s Community Earth System Model. The goal was to investigate the sign of biological net primary productivity change in recently warming and cooling areas of the global ocean, under the hypothesis that productivity has decreased over time within regions of warming sea surface temperature and the opposite in cooling regions. This decrease in productivity in warming regions was thought to be driven by a decrease in available nutrients and/or a shift in phytoplankton community composition towards smaller celled organisms. Results did not fully support the hypothesis, as phosphate notably was observed to decrease in essentially all fluctuating temperature regions of the global ocean. Further, nitrate was found to have a strong correlation with NPP concentrations in both the stimulating and inhibiting sense, and iron limitation may act as a buffer on the extent to which NPP may increase or decrease. Further research should target the synergistic effects of both nitrate and iron delivery and limitation on diatom growth in regions of the global ocean currently experiencing both warming and cooling trends.

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