Title:

Spectral Markers of Destruction: NDVI and NDBI-Based Assessment of Environmental Warfare in the Gaza Strip

This study evaluates the environmental and land use consequences of the most recent period of armed conflict in Gaza using optical satellite remote sensing, integrated with land cover classification and spatiotemporal analysis of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI). Multi-temporal Sentinel-2 imagery classified by conflict phase and land cover class reveals the extent and type of infrastructural damage and vegetation loss throughout the Gaza Strip. A supervised Random Forest classification, trained on the ESA WorldCover 2020 data and Sentinel-2 imagery, delineates land cover change between the pre-conflict period (1 January 2021–6 October 2023) and an active conflict period (7 October 2023–15 January 2025). Results show a 64% reduction in agricultural classes and a 121% increase in high-density built-up land cover areas, interpreted as possible rubble deposition areas. Detected shifts in land cover classes show large movements from formerly vegetated areas to built-up and bare land cover classes, namely a 30 km2 shift from cropland to built-up areas. LOESS-based deseasonalized NDVI and NDBI time series results evaluated by land cover class highlight statistically significant declines in NDVI and increases in NDBI across pre-conflict and active conflict periods, with the largest spectral shifts observed in former agricultural zones. A quadrant-based analysis of change in NDVI and NDBI reveals widespread co-location of NDVI losses and NDBI increases consistent with structural destruction and the conversion of vegetated areas to disturbed soils. This study demonstrates the value of NDVI and NDBI as indicators of ecological degradation and urban destruction in armed conflict geographies.

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