Title:

The Future of Hydropower in New England

As of 2022, hydropower accounted for roughly 10% of New England's power generation. Hydroelectric power generation is reliant on river flow, and the hydrological regime of New England is expected to change over time due to changes in climate conditions. This research investigates changes to New England hydrology under different climate scenarios, and how changing seasonal flow patterns may impact hydroelectric power generation potential. Twenty-nine climate models for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used as drivers for a hydrological model, producing discharge simulations for sixty-four run-of-river hydropower sites across New England. Additionally, historical flow simulations derived from a hydro-meteorological dataset for nine sites were compared to gauge data, examining both dataset's relationship to power generation data. Results projected significant increases in flow from January to March, decreases in flow from April to July, and uncertainty in direction of change from August to December in 2033-2063. Discharge from gauge data showed a correlation with power generation, but further model calibration work is needed to better estimate impacts on power generation potential.

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