Title:

Analyzing Trends in New Hampshire Snow Density

New Hampshire is known for its winters. There has been much research on the warming and shortening of winters, but comparatively little on changing snow quality. Analyzing snow density can provide deeper insights into changing winter conditions than can be provided by temperature and snowfall measurements alone. The Mount Washington Observatory maintains a record of daily weather observations going back to 1934. This project used that extensive record to create several time series and linear regression models for snow density and temperature. Several seasonal ARIMA models were then generated to fit the time series, and the best candidate model was used to forecast snow density for the next several years. The research found that the snowfall on Mt. Washington is denser than the national standard, that snow density has decreased over the last 90 years, that density and temperature are positively correlated, and further trends in temperature and snowfall. This research may be useful to climatologists and meteorologists who issue snowfall predictions, storm warnings, and avalanche advisories.

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