Title:

Spatially Explicit Capture Recapture Abundance Estimates of the Imperiled New England Cottontail

Native shrubland-dependent species are declining across the Northeast region, resulting in a need for monitoring and evaluating at-risk populations, such as the New England cottontail (Sylvilagus transitionalis). Previously, the conservation strategy for this imperiled native rabbit has relied on occupancy monitoring, but this does not provide proper insight into the status and viability of populations or their response to management. Recently, new forestry practices have been recommended that retain modest amounts of canopy cover, thought to favor New England cottontail in the presence of the non-native eastern cottontail. The effectiveness of these practices need to be evaluated in diverse landscapes. To address this need, we are collecting abundance estimates using Spatially-Explicit-Capture-Recapture methods in the young forests of western Connecticut and coastal shrublands of southern Maine. This approach combines genetic mark-recapture of noninvasively collected cottontail fecal pellets and spatial data to estimate the abundance and density of New England cottontail populations. Given this spatial context, and by evaluating population density in relation to measured covariates (e.g., vegetation, eastern cottontail presence), we are developing models to predict abundance into unsurveyed areas. This allows us to estimate New England Cottontail abundance in various habitat types in southern Maine and western Connecticut, and generate baseline abundance estimates before planned forestry management. This will provide information for assessing population viability and ultimately, with follow-up, post-management abundance estimates, for evaluating population-level impacts of forestry.

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