Title:

Modeling the population dynamics of a human Mars colony in the event of catastrophe

At any given time, there is a probability that the human population on Earth could go extinct or be dramatically reduced by a catastrophic event. Catastrophes include nuclear war, a natural disaster due to climate change, an interaction with an object from space like an asteroid or a comet, or a detrimental plague. Establishing a colony on Mars could serve as an alternative if Earth was no longer viable. Mars has been heavily discussed as our next destination in the exploration of our solar system, yet there are challenges to account for when considering the feasibility of establishing a long-term colony there. Computational population models were utilized to display varying levels of disturbance on Earth across catastrophic events with three different probabilities. The modeled Martian colony would have a set carrying capacity based on available resources, the payload of the spacecraft that flew the settlers there, and how long the stay on Mars was intended to be. It was found that a minimum reproduction rate of 0.10 and a strong positive dispersal rate from Earth was necessary to maintain the population on Mars. This work provides a foundation for additional research into how colonizing other planets may affect the long-term survival of the human species.

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